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Clients and Friends Newsletter for May 24, 2002 My six year old, Leo, graduates from kindergarten this weekend. Friday evening he'll don a cap and gown, walk down the aisle to "Pomp and Circumstance," and make the transition from preschooler to first grader. A bright day for Mr. Leo--never mind the longer school day, less lunches with Mom, and more homework that await him in first grade. He's done the work and he's ready for the next step. He's on the cusp of a change. Congratulations, Leo, I know you'll do great! Now, Leo is pretty good at adapting to change. He's made the adjustment from T-Ball to a fifty mile-per hour pitching machine in baseball, and he can hit the ball pretty well. He adapts his interests to the interests of his care giver, transitioning effortlessly from watching "Emeril" with his restaurateur grandmother to watching the Braves (such as they are) with me, if we're in the mood for TV. He's flexible, has fun, and never quits learning. Investors could learn a lot from Leo. All too often we participants in the financial markets insist on telling the market what we think should happen. The market, of course, doesn't care what we think, and, (as witnessed by the last several years' ongoing implosion of telecom, Internet, and technology stocks) will occasionally steam-roll investors' accumulated missteps with brutal efficiency. A better approach, at least through my eyes, would be to train ourselves to take what the market gives us, staying flexible and continually learning from our mistakes as well as our successes. How kind of the market the last several years to have generously provided so many opportunities for learning! The market action of the last several weeks has been slightly more positive than on my 4/27 report, but is still best classified as sideways to down. Some buying action has emerged since we hit our interim lows on May 7--indeed, the more optimistic market watchers have noted that buying volume has been higher than selling volume recently--a sign that mutual fund managers may be doing some nibbling--but I think it would be premature to say that we've definitely seen the lows. Here are the charts and commentary:
If the recession is over, and the world isn't going to dissolve in nuclear Armageddon, and corporate America isn't going to keep using accounting shenanigans to overly inflate performance, and if Wall Street really is going to offer independent analysis (big ifs. all) investors may finally begin to peer out from their foxholes, and, like Leo's school scenario, a change in market tone may eventually occur. Investors would be well-served to pay attention to the events of the next several weeks, before the summer doldrums hit, for signs as to the broader market's health. From the Shameless Commerce Division: (with apologies to "Car Talk") My firm, Dare Capital Management and Advisory, is an independent, fee-only financial advisory firm and a NC-registered investment advisor. I would be happy to speak with prospective clients interested in establishing a relationship with an independent money manager regarding the firm's services. Hug a kid and laugh a little! Will W. Woodard, III, CFP® "Clients and Friends Newsletter" is published monthly by Dare Capital Management and is free of charge. To subscribe, send your email address to will@darecapital.com and put "subscribe newsletter" in the subject line. All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Will W. Woodard, III and Dare Capital Management and Advisory, and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Dare Capital Management and Advisory is registered in the State of North Carolina as a Registered Investment Advisor Firm. The information presented herein and the company's web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Dare Capital Management and Advisory may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and/or on the company's web site. Positions in securities mentioned will be disclosed at the time of publication and may be subject to change at any time without further notice. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future results may vary for many reasons. |
