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Home This site created and maintained by Wes Stephenson Photos by Ray Matthews 
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Hey Folks, Happy Thanksgiving! It is certainly a time of year to consider and give thanks for our staggering wealth: Family, freedom, friends, loved ones, the ability to chart our own course through life, to worship our own God as we wish, to go to bed with no regrets each night. Powerful stuff! Please make a point of saying “thank you”, and consider what you can do to give back to your family, your community, your country. In this month’s holiday-shortened issue:
1. Updated Market Metrics:
Chart is reprinted courtesy of and with thanks to Fixed Income Securities and Stone & McCarthy 2. Market Tone Improving: As of late November market tone has improved considerably. Market fundamentals have shown a tone that is increasingly indicative of stock accumulation by institutional money managers. This is a very important influencing factor affecting the sustainability of any upward momentum. The Dow has had seven up weeks in a row as of Friday 11/21, and there are stocks in the market that have had significant upward runs during the rally. See the above chart, “Model Portfolios”, and “Charts” for more information. 3. Model Portfolio update: As of Monday, 11/25 the three portfolios were performing as follows: A. 21st Century Growth was up 6.61% on stock price appreciation for the three-month reporting period and had a total return including dividends of 7.06% for the period. Forward-looking annualized return for the portfolio is running at 28.25%. This, ahem, return is a presumptuous and wholly unattainable number over the long run, but very valid as the type of broad-market move found at market bott….,bott….,botto…. I can’t say the word. That said, however, it’s nice to see green arrows!, and we'll take it. Top holdings in the portfolio are cell phone maker Nokia (NOK), discount broker and Dare Capital Management custodian Ameritrade (AMTD), software maker BEA Systems (BEAS), media giant AOL-Time Warner (AOL), and food distributor Sysco Foods (SYY). There have been no buys or sells in the portfolio since inception. B. Fixed Income was up 0.71% over the three month reporting period for an forward-looking annualized return of 2.84%. More notably, Fixed Income has returned 8.63% year to date, as “The Bond Ghouls” (as Mark Haines on CNBC calls them) have been in rally mode during the stock market slide of the last three years. C. Dividend Yield had a return of –4.07% on stock price and a total return of –3.32% including dividends for the period. Total annualized forward-looking returns for the portfolio are -13.28%. The portfolio pays a dividend yield of 3% but is concentrated into only 27 stocks (28 with the WP Stewart buy described below, and a change from the 24 that was reported by mistake in an earlier newsletter), so one or two stocks (in this case, Duke Energy (DUK) and Phillip Morris (MO) were the culprits) can adversely affect return. The top five portfolio holdings are cement plant operator Florida Rock (FRK), superbank Citigroup C, municipal bond firm John Nuveen Co. (JNC), WD-40 Corporation (WDFC), and Sysco Foods (SYY). The portfolio bought a start-up position in Bermuda-based asset manager WP Stewart (WPL), on November 25. Stewart pays a dividend of $1.20 a share, giving it a dividend yield of 5.96% based on the purchase price of $20.12. The portfolio has not made any other buys or sells. Charts:
Good investing, Will W. Woodard, III, CFP® Will Woodard is president of Dare Capital Management and Advisory, an independent Registered Investment Advisor and fee-only financial planning firm based in Kill Devil Hills, NC. Will's firm specializes in independent, impartial, objective, and professional financial advice. He, his firm, or his clients may own the investments mentioned herein. The fine print: This newsletter can be reprinted or forwarded--however, it is requested that reprints of any material in this newsletter include credit to Dare Capital Management and Advisory (252)480-9535 and an email link to will@darecapital.com. Thanks for spreading the word! All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Will W. Woodard, III and Dare Capital Management and Advisory, and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. The information presented herein and on the company's web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future results may vary for many reasons. To unsubscribe, hit "reply" on your browser and type "unsubscribe" on the subject line. |
