Dare Capital Management and Advisory

Investor's Corner Newsletter

By Will W. Woodard, III, CFP®
President, Dare Capital Management & Advisory
November 25, 2003

Ahh, the life: mid-November, 75 degrees outside, watching a beautiful son grow up, close family thriving, business growing steadily, am surrounded by a growing circle of fun, thoughtful, intelligent, giving people, client portfolios solidly positive, catching speckled trout in the surf barefooted…They don't call it Thanksgiving for nothing!

In this issue of Investor's Corner:

  1. Essay: A personal growth leap of faith
  2. Commentary: Momentum traders strike again, by Tobin Smith
  3. Charts
  4. Worthwhile links

"With great power comes great responsibility." Peter Parker's Uncle Ben, from Spiderman-The Movie

1. Essay: A personal growth leap of faith. Making the personal commitment to work towards a more simple, meaningful, and profound life is a bit like bungee jumping: Having climbed to an uncomfortable height, you take direction from a professional guide…or a friend who's done it before…or maybe even just a voice inside your head, then secure a cord around your body, and MAKE A LEAP OF FAITH.

It's a leap of faith because you don't know for sure that the cord is the right length, that it's going to stay attached to your body, and that it won't break when you're screaming towards the earth at what feels like 100 miles an hour.

Initially reserved for foolhardy adrenaline junkie thrill seekers, bungee jumping has gone mainstream. Why? Maybe because it's a cheap thrill, (subject to your definition of the word "cheap") or we are one BORED human race (that would be a cynic's viewpoint, I guess).

I'm going to go out on a limb, though, and say that the reason bungee jumping has risen to the level of popularity that it has is because ITS A NET POSITIVE ENDEAVOR-i.e., the gains outweigh the costs.

My theory is that the first bungee jumpers got such a rush out of jumping that IT CHANGED THEIR LIVES…at least a little bit. They had more energy, they smiled more, they were more fun to be around.

Perhaps the act of hurtling Earthward while staring down certain death--only to engage, then stretch--the cord, ever so slowly cease earthbound momentum, hang for a magnified second, then rebound skyward, rubber band-like, relieved and laughing, made their lives suddenly take on more meaning.

Of course, envious friends and observers (we humans are an envious lot, aren't we?!) wanted some of the post-jump, je ne sais quoi spark that they were witness to. After that crucial psychological demand had been created, it was just a matter of getting more and more people to try it until a tipping point was reached--then the properties of scale took over. These days, bungee jumping is pretty much just another amusement park ride.

People who have made conscious decisions to make their lives more profound are the bungee jumpers among us.

Take a minute to survey the landscape of your friends, family, and associates. Who do you want to emulate? Is it the folks who have all the stuff but run around directionless and frazzled? Is it the folks who engage life at the absolute minimum and thus are nothing more than cardboard cutouts of themselves most of the time?

My guess is that you've targeted the folks among your human capital network WHOSE LIFE APPEARS TO MEAN THE MOST. After all, if we're fantasizing, we aim high, right?

Stop fantasizing-make the leap.

2. Commentary: Momentum traders strike again, by Tobin Smith

Tobin Smith is president of Changewave Investing and is usually an interesting read. The below excerpt is from the November 19, 2003 Wavewire Email Letter.

Since peaking last week on a classic "sell the news" move by hedge funds, the market needs a shot in the arm. (Understand this - the private capital partnerships collectively called hedge funds did more than 52% off ALL trades on the NYSE last week, and I'm sure an even higher percentage on the Nasdaq.)

Technically the intra-day breaking of the 20-day moving average line on both the Dow and Nasdaq set up a move through the 30-day moving average to the 50-day levels at Dow 9,625 and Nasdaq 1,900. Again, no big whoop.

…Support and resistance zones outlined before are still intact. Major support for the market indexes still stands at the 50-day moving average for each of the indexes: Dow 9,625, S&P 500 1,035 and Nasdaq 1,900. Unless you see a breach of these averages on way big volume, (the uptrend is intact).

Resistance still rests at Dow 9,945, S&P 500 1,062 and Nasdaq 1,992. To take out these levels, we will need Applied Materials and Dell to re-ignite the tech sector, and our research strongly supports another dose of good news from these two bellwethers.

IS GOOD NEWS STILL GOOD NEWS?

Will good news be sold again? One part of me says, "Who cares?" while another part thinks, "I hope so." I'd love to see a pullback to 50-day levels to let us get some great entry points on our favorite stocks.

…. Hedge funds account for more than 50% of ALL trading in the markets today. That's a HUGE, HUGE shift in the dynamics of the markets from the late '90s.... Hedge fund managers get paid out of profits -- ONLY. This is why you see the mind-numbing trading in and out of momentum stocks.

Many funds are down or flat this year as short selling has killed them in this new bull market. They are like a prizefighter who is down on the all the judges' cards with two rounds left. They have to manufacture profits to get paid, and they will do everything they can to make them. (It's expensive to keep two ex-wives, the kids in private schools, a house in the Hamptons and an apartment on the West Side.)

If you do own a fundamentally superior stock …then DO NOT get shook up when you see a (down) day. (You do) have to have conviction about the fundamentals behind your stocks…(and) conviction that is well-founded and right beats fear and momentum sellers every time.

3. Charts



4. Worthwhile links:

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Board of Standards - http://www.cfp.net/default.asp

NAPFA, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors - http://www.napfa.org/

The FPA's Hampton Roads chapter - http://www.fpahamptonroads.com/about.htm

Dare Capital Management & Advisory home page - http://www.darecapital.com/

Well, that's enough for this issue. Feel free to call or write with questions or comments, or to inquire about my firm's services as they relate to your individual situation. And please say thank you as often as possible!

Good investing,

Will W. Woodard, III, CFP®
Dare Capital Management and Advisory
PO Box 1138
Kill Devil Hills, NC 27948-1138
252.480.0156
will@darecapital.com
www.darecapital.com

Will Woodard is president of Dare Capital Management & Advisory, a Registered Investment Advisor and fee-only financial planning firm based in Kill Devil Hills. Dare Capital is committed to providing independent, objective, and professional financial advice. Mr. Woodard, his firm, or his clients may own the investments mentioned herein. Contact Will at (252) 480-0156 or e-mail Will@darecapital.com

The fine print: This newsletter can be reprinted or forwarded--however, it is requested that reprints of any material in this newsletter include credit to Dare Capital Management and Advisory (252)480-0156 and an email link to will@darecapital.com. Thanks for spreading the word!

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Will W. Woodard, III and Dare Capital Management and Advisory, and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Mr. Woodard, his firm, or his clients may own the investments discussed in this newsletter. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

The information presented herein and the company's web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future results may vary for many reasons.

Copyright 2003 Dare Capital Management and Advisory-all rights reserved.